JMTC Wow Gold Forum

The updated patchnotes for patch 4.0.6 contain two interesting changes for Alchemy:

The newly added Alchemist Stones will most likely have similar reagents as Lifebound Alchemist Stone, some herbs and 50 Volatile Life. If we combine this information with the reduction for herbs and increase in Volatile Life needed to create flasks there's only one logical conclusion: The demand for Volatile Life is going to increase. The biggest question is if the increase will be enough to result to an increase in price, what do you think?

I've made two posts on my blog for patch 4.0.6 which also include the changes for Jewelcrafting:
New patchnotes 4.0.6: buy Volatile Life?
Patch 4.0.6 - New meta gems incoming

Alchemists only ... this will only work if people have armies of Alchemists ... oh wait

I've actually been testing the waters with this particular change recently. While I want to stock up on Volatile Lifes in case of a dramatic increase in price, I don't wanna get caught with my hand in the cookie jar in case someone else has a greater supply and creates a undercutting war. Although I'm up to 400K liquid, I know several other people who play the AH (including one who all but runs the entire horde side AH ruthlessly) who are million+ on my server, so I have to be careful when I try to manipulate.

So what I've done is buy the Volatiles up to about 12g (from 7-8g where it normally sits) and then post most of them for 12g. I then say something in trade chat like "Ugh, price of volatile lifes going up in 4.0.6- we'll need even more for flasks." Usually I find that 75% of what I bought sells within a few hours, and what doesn't sell is already paid for with the profit from the sales. Then, when 4.0.6 actually drops, I've got plenty of lifes to make into flasks or resell. I've done this 4-5 times now and have a stock of around 2K.

The only certainty seems to be that volatile life is going to get more volatile, with a longer term uptrend of variable size. I would look at your own server to see if there is currently a surplus, which could greatly dampen the shock.

Further, bear in mind that volatile life is relatively easy to farm, so supply can be expected to react fairly quickly. Demand from living elements transmuters is also very elastic: they won't transmute anymore if lifes go over the other volatiles. Both of these effects will help bring the price to the new equilibrium faster.

In other words, as a speculator you wouldnt care so much what the price eventually ends up at. In addition, if you can magnify the volatility with your own market actions, you can gouge even better in the beginning. Most importantly, act fast when the patch launches or the opportunities will vanish.

If violet life [misspelling intentional] goes up in price, it'll be because the number of herbs per flask will be dropping from 24 to 16. Only a small amount of life is being used for flasks, so the increase from 6 to 8 per flask wont increase the demand much.

Because of the number of herbs, flasks are selling for 150-200 gold each, with Life accounting for less than 20% of the cost. Using flasks for raids is too expensive for many groups.

Even after the patch drops, they'll still cost at least 4 times what they did in WotLK, but more people will consider them cheap enough, so more flasks will sell.

Those guilds that are using flasks have gotten/will soon get the ability to use cauldrons, which will reduce the number of flasks needed.

You won't see the same consumption of flasks as you saw in WotLK. Cauldrons will stifle demand, herbs cost 5x as much, and you need over 4 times as many as you used to; and while I think they failed due to the paucity of useful guardian elixers, they once said that they intended a pair of elixers should provide a better buff than 1 flask.

A drop in the price of herbs (due to an increased supply) would likely accompany a drop in the price of life.

I do expect Life to go up when the patch hits, but I expect it to be minor. Much like the price jump at the beginning of each DM faire due to deck-makers.

How many have you bought so far? I've got a little over 600 so far, most bought between 6 and 6.5g.

I've been flipping these a lot, in addition to selling my own gatherings.

Two weeks or so ago I was buying up multiple stacks of 200, at between 5-6g/life; and selling in stacks of 5, at 8-10g/life. Last few days I have been buying at 7-9.5 (avg ~9) and selling at ~12. I spent about 8K last few days, sold a few back, and used a few to level tailoring, and am currently sitting on about 800 V.Life. (EDIT: No. That was about 1200 V.Life. It's more, now.)

Yeah I just dove headfirst into this one. Im not normally one to do a whole lot in speculation but I feel this one is a pretty calculated risk. I buy in bulk frequently and its normal for me to spend 40k plus in a day for mats in markets that I sell consistently like ore so I thought why not lifes since the ways to sell them are gonna be a pretty diverse portfolio here soon.

DMB faire - Im hoping that I can cater to this crowd with my stock that I just bought of lifes this morning. I'm hoping that I can control mats and with my cards that I have been making cheaply and buying at close to mats cost, Im hoping to control that market too and watch everyone that just jumped into the market drown as the demand prolly wont increase and the supply i'm thinking will, but I'll see if im right.

4.06 - flasks and stones

LE - xmutes still turn a profit

If I only had 1 way to move these in hopes for a flip I don't think I woulda dropped teh 20k on lifes this morning. I had been stocking up slowly whenever my server price dipped below 10g a piece. My server is normally aroudn 10-12g a piece. I had seen a few more then normal around 8g and this morning I saw a ton around 6g, so I bought around 3000 of them. Lil more then I normally would risk on speculation but I'm hoping to win big and if I don't meh its just pixels and I got a lot more. I'm hoping that they dont continue to drop and then I have to buy more...but I prolly would.

I got lucky on my server. I bought every bit of it that was around 5 gold, and the day after they announced the patch notes, prices went to 15-20 gold.

I check every day for any dumps, but it seems the dumps have stopped. Guess I will have to go farm some herbs.