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 Post subject: Getting nervous about falling prices
PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2011 4:46 pm  
Scout

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I invested in volatiles and truegold before the patch and I'm getting nervous about the falling prices.. mostly of the volatiles. Even water and fire have tanked when most speculation was that they would spike due to demand for the new pvp gear. Truegold has declined slightly - not horribly, I would still make a small profit if I dumped my stockpile, but volatiles have really tanked:

air 20g to around 10g
fire 15g to less than 10g
water has stayed pretty much the same
earth has stayed pretty much the same
life the same

I have a large stockpile of water, fire, and life, only maybe 100 air and less earth.

Wondering if I should be buying out the air - is it ever going to come back? Why has it tanked so much? Even more curious about fire, which was supposedly needed for the new pvp gear - has it tanked due to it dropping from molten front mobs?


I'm trying to stay patient in hopes that I will eventually be able to cash in my stockpile for huge profits but I've gotten nervous and am not buying these low-priced things like air for 10g, fire for 8g, truegold for <400g. Am I being unreasonable? Just looking for a kick in the ass probably... thx :D


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 Post subject: Re: Getting nervous about falling prices
PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2011 8:39 pm  
Centurion

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Air depends on your decision of other factors... Is Truegold going to bounce back up in price or not. If it will, then buying out the air may be worth it.

The fire is going down since there is increased supply from people doing the new dailies. Once people stop, supply should decrease again. I'd expect the price to go back up again too.

Doesn't the new pvp season open up soon (or just opened up) ?? If so, it could cause a spike.

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 Post subject: Re: Getting nervous about falling prices
PostPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2011 11:33 am  
Scout

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PVP season 10 started last tuesday... it didn't seem to have much of an impact on prices on my server unfortunately. I was keeping an eye on pyrium bars as well to see if there was a spike from people looking to buy the new pvp patterns but didn't see anything worthwhile there as well....

My main problem is I'm a bit scared to continue to buy right now. I don't understand the dip in air prices... fire makes sense but I'm wondering if it will ever rebound... the molten front dailies will probably be popular for a while so the supply may not dwindle for quite a while.


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 Post subject: Re: Getting nervous about falling prices
PostPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2011 2:53 pm  
Stone Guard

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Back in the day I invested thorium ore ...prices crashed
then I invested in mithril ore..prices dropped..
I only stock pyrite <= 60g, elementium <= 20, obsidium <=20..

I assume that will crash too.

Damn those bots...

But it is nice to stockup and they get banned temporarily and you can cash in.


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 Post subject: Re: Getting nervous about falling prices
PostPosted: Thu Jul 14, 2011 11:05 pm  
Centurion

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The bots is the main reason I don't touch commodities with one exception. Cross expansion commodities stockpiling.

I often buy up a bunch of ore and herbs at the end of an expansion and wait... wait.... wait. Sometimes months into the next expansion.... sometimes to skip an expansion.

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 Post subject: Re: Getting nervous about falling prices
PostPosted: Tue Jul 19, 2011 12:58 am  
Senior Sergeant

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I think the reason for the drop in air is either a lot of people are transmuting air now, because of the drop in Truegold (so they stopped transmuting Truegold), or because during dailies, you do pick up a bit of air, I noticed. Not much, but it all adds up - just like the increase in fire.

I would hang onto your stockpile. It's exactly what I am doing. I realised that I shouldn't have bothered with Pristine Hides as people are just going to turn in leather themselves for the hides; but with Truegold, the demand is coming. We just have to wait until people have access to the recipes and find that they have run out of Truegold - or people need to buy it to get people to craft their gear for them.

Until enough people can craft the gear, the demand simply isn't there. But at eight bars per craft, I can't see how this investment will tank. I'm happy to wait to get my gold back - and maybe even see it push me close to my 100k goal!

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 Post subject: Re: Getting nervous about falling prices
PostPosted: Tue Jul 19, 2011 2:30 am  
Sergeant

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Gaiwyn wrote:
We just have to wait until people have access to the recipes and find that they have run out of Truegold - or people need to buy it to get people to craft their gear for them.

Until enough people can craft the gear, the demand simply isn't there. But at eight bars per craft, I can't see how this investment will tank. I'm happy to wait to get my gold back - and maybe even see it push me close to my 100k goal!

What Gaiwyn said.

I've yet to see a single ilvl 365 craft on the AH, people should only be getting their recipes today or tomorrow (EU server, one day late as always). Once people start crafting, the current cheap and limited AH supply should dry up pretty quickly.


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 Post subject: Re: Getting nervous about falling prices
PostPosted: Wed Jul 20, 2011 4:58 am  
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General

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Truegold already jumped up to 850g on my server, and I expect it to go even higher as more people get the recipes.

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 Post subject: Re: Getting nervous about falling prices
PostPosted: Wed Jul 20, 2011 4:37 pm  
First Sergeant

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Only 6 true-gold at 650 gold left on AH before my 15 true-gold at 1500 gold/u.

No hard elementium up so i posted in stack of 4 for 1k.

I doubt it will sells, but who knows.


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 Post subject: Re: Getting nervous about falling prices
PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2011 1:43 am  
Senior Sergeant

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At this crucial time, I don't have an internet connection at home! Nooooo!

Guess I can only hope that the prices will continue to rise and will sit high for a while. I guess the more time that goes by, the more the supply will dry up; then I will swoop in with my 80 Truegold and sell them at 1.2k each. ;)

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