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 Post subject: Obsidium Shuffle
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 1:21 am  
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Warlord

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This is just a start. It will be expanded to include any worthwhile Blacksmithing plans as we get more information on the disenchanting tables. Feel free to add corrections or suggestions.

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 Post subject: Re: Obsidium Shuffle
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 2:10 am  
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Warlord

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Couple of things that jumped out at me so far:

Blue is the new purple.

Green gems vendor for 5g.

Cut green gems vendor for 9g. (I smell nerfbat already.)

Each piece of green jewelry requires 2 gems and a 1g50s setting. Green jewelry vendors for 5g50s, or 4g after paying for the setting. Do the math.

The Carnelian Spikes require 3 gems and 3 settings (4g50s). The Carnelian Spikes vendor for 19g48s, or 14g98s after paying for the setting. As above, do the math.

Craft to vendor is dead with a stake through it. Not even Sylvanas is bringing this one back.

The mats for green jewelry cost 19g40s. Carnelian Spikes cost 31g50s to make. Each shuffle will produce 1.5 Lesser Celestials costing 12g93s each. Carnelian shuffles will produce 21g Lesser Celestials. (Red is the new green.)

Assuming 1 green gem per prospect, the base vendor value of a prospected stack of Obsidium Ore is 36g. If we get 1.5 green gems per prospect, this value rises to 54g. The Shuffle kicks in if Lesser Celestials are selling for more than 12g93s apiece. There is no Shuffle if Celestial prices are below this point.

Blue gems appear to be too unreliable to count on as an income source from small batches. The low number of prospected blues will likely stabilize the market prices for transmuted blues, however. Blue gem transmutes will start at 27g plus whatever the herbs cost.

Fire Prisms will cost 162g to make. :shock:

Shadowspirit Diamonds will cost 162g to make. :shock:

We welcome you back to the World of Inflationcraft.

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 Post subject: Re: Obsidium Shuffle
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 2:32 am  
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Warlord

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TouchofIdiocy wrote:
Prospecting six stacks of ore, I obtained 38 uncommon quality gems and one rare quality gem.

24 prospects, 38 gems. This is approaching 1.5 gems per prospect, much higher than the 1.1 gems per prospect from Saronite. If this holds, it raises the base value of each Obsidium stack to 54g. Celestial values will remain unchanged.

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 Post subject: Re: Obsidium Shuffle
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 4:11 am  
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Any numbers on the prospecting Elementium since that's likely to be more heavily farmed and cheaper if cobalt/saronite is the precedent.


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 Post subject: Re: Obsidium Shuffle
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 5:46 am  
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What are the equivalents to Cobalt/Saronite/Titanium ?

Obsidian = Cobalt?

I never found Cobalt worth propescting, except for the very first few weeks to level JC when saronite wasn't available.


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 Post subject: Re: Obsidium Shuffle
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 12:49 pm  
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Senior Sergeant

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Thx for the little drawing.

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 Post subject: Re: Obsidium Shuffle
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 1:12 pm  
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Warlord

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Juvie wrote:
Any numbers on the prospecting Elementium since that's likely to be more heavily farmed and cheaper if cobalt/saronite is the precedent.

I haven't seen anything for prospecting results from Elementium yet, so we're working with the cheap stuff.

As far as green gems and disenchanting goes, Cobalt and Saronite are exactly the same. The only difference between the two was the chance for a blue gem. If Obsidium and Elementium follow the same pattern, the same values will apply to both up until we start calculating blue gem profits.

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 Post subject: Re: Obsidium Shuffle
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 1:18 pm  
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Warlord

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Nissaya wrote:
What are the equivalents to Cobalt/Saronite/Titanium ?

Obsidian = Cobalt?

Obsidium
Obsidium Bar (smelted)
Folded Obsidium (blacksmithed)

Elementium
Elementium Bar (smelted)
Hardened Elementium Bar (smelted) (was Ebonsteel)

Pyrite Ore
Pyrium Bar (smelted)
Pyrium Bar (transmuted)
Truegold (transmuted) (was Krovalian Gold)

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 Post subject: Re: Obsidium Shuffle
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 3:46 pm  
Stone Guard

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Z-Man wrote:
Green gems vendor for 5g.

Cut green gems vendor for 9g. (I smell nerfbat already.)
I agree with your nerf prediction, but if it isn't...

With cut gems being so expensive, they'd have to sell in the AH for much more than that to avoid losing money in fees.

This might be an attempt to prop up the old WotLK rares, as Cata Uncommons would have to cost more or the people making them would vendor them until it did.

With gems being so expensive, the supply of Essences will be much smaller unless it rises to the disenchant-for-profit point.

Finally, and Blizz has shown repeatedly that they will adjust this, the Saronite shuffle always produced alot of dust for each essence, if we're not mass-shuffling, the amount of dust vs essences in circulation might be lower.

Personally I believe some shuffle will be necessary. It always has been needed to keep up with demand for enchanting mats, and the amount of enchanting mats needed is similar to the past. I'd argue that the price of Cosmics was largely determined by the vendor prices of jewelry and saronite bars, and the new essences will be similarly priced based on cut gem prices or bar vendoring.

Your numbers don't take into account wowhead's prediction of 0.28 rares per stack of ore, I'm pretty sure that they will severely change the numbers even though wowhead lists their vendor prices as 3g/3.75g which is insane compared to uncommon's 5g/9g. Another argument in favor of an imminent price-nerf, but I think the rares will go up in value instead, because blizz hates crafted weapons/armor vendoring for more than their mats, and the perforator (6 Rare gems) vendors for over 24g

P.S. May I suggest the Obsidian Obligato (a flourish of different notes played together)


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 Post subject: Re: Obsidium Shuffle
PostPosted: Thu Nov 18, 2010 4:22 pm  
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Warlord

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This is definitely going to require a closer look at disenchanting items from Tailoring and Leatherworking to see if they can produce Essenses below 13g. The beta Tailors aren't happy with the drop rate for cloth, so they may not be providing much of anything early on.

Blacksmiths are in a pickle if JCs can freely snatch anything below 50g a stack. They're going to pay more than 5g per bar to compete, which will probably wreck their chances for a profitable disenchant. (Leveling Blacksmithing is going to hurt. A lot.)

Enchanters are so hosed if they think they'll be able to just buy their mats from the AH. Greater Celestials will start at 40g even if there's no demand. And either the disenchanting tables are bad, or we're going to be really short on dust.

Why do I have the feeling the farmers may have won this one? What's their gold/hour when ore is selling for 50g a stack?

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